Which thinking error is evident when someone evaluates their chances of success based solely on their efforts?

The thinking error demonstrated by evaluating one's chances of success solely based on personal efforts is known as wishful thinking. This occurs when an individual assumes that their hard work will directly translate to success, neglecting other essential factors that might influence the outcome. For example, while effort is certainly an important element in achieving goals, success often depends on a combination of circumstances, external support, resources, and sometimes even luck. Thus, wishful thinking reflects an overly optimistic viewpoint where one disregards the complexity of real-world situations and the multitude of variables that play a role in success or failure.

In contrast, the other options highlight different errors in reasoning. Tabloid thinking refers to an overly sensationalized approach to assessing information, often influenced by biases. Academic detachment involves a disconnect between theoretical knowledge and practical application, while not drawing the line may indicate a failure to set appropriate boundaries or expectations in judgment. These differences underpin why wishful thinking is the most fitting label for the described scenario.