Which psychological concept best describes the idea of believing one can predict an event due to prior information?

The concept that aligns most closely with believing one can predict an event based on prior information is often referred to as confirmation bias. This psychological phenomenon occurs when individuals favor information that confirms their existing beliefs or assumptions, leading them to overestimate their ability to predict outcomes based on prior experiences.

Confirmation bias involves selectively gathering or interpreting evidence that supports one's preconceived notions while disregarding evidence that may contradict those beliefs. This can create a skewed perception of reality, making individuals feel as though they have accurate predictions or insights into future events, simply because they are focusing on information that aligns with their expectations.

While wishful thinking involves hoping for a desired outcome and may influence a person's perception of predictability, it does not inherently involve the logical assessment of prior information. Inherent bias refers more broadly to systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, and superstition involves attributing causality to unrelated phenomena rather than drawing accurate conclusions based on prior knowledge.