What cognitive bias is identified when one believes they will fail a test simply because they have done poorly on past tests taken at the same time?

The identified cognitive bias in this scenario is known as Inconceivability. This bias can manifest when someone draws an unfounded conclusion about their future performance based on previous experiences. In this case, the individual believes they will fail the upcoming test solely because they have experienced poor outcomes on tests taken during the same timeframe in the past.

This bias emphasizes a skewed perception of reality, where past failures overshadow any potential for improvement or different outcomes. It disregards other influencing factors, like preparation, individual growth, or changes in circumstances that could lead to a better performance. Therefore, it reflects a cognitive distortion where the past is mistakenly used as a definitive predictor of future results, leading to an unwarranted assumption that the same negative outcomes will recur.

Understanding this bias can help individuals recognize that each situation can be different and that their performance may improve regardless of past experiences. By acknowledging and addressing Inconceivability, students can build a more realistic and optimistic outlook towards future tests or challenges.